The best fantasy trades happen when you see the difference between a player's true value and his perceived value in your league. Buy low, sell high is about timing — catching a player at the bottom of his market before he proves everyone else wrong, or moving a player at his peak before he declines.
Buying low: what you're looking for
A buy-low candidate is a player whose recent performance has been bad, but whose underlying situation hasn't actually changed. Look for:
- Tough early-season schedule: A WR who faced the two best CBs in the conference in Weeks 1–2 and posted 4 points each time looks bad on paper. His owner may panic. His upcoming schedule may be much softer.
- Injury recovery: A player who was "limited" but played 80% of snaps and had a quiet game. The scheme adjusted for his injury — his talent is unchanged.
- Target drought: A WR who runs 70% of routes but caught only 3-of-7 targets in Week 3. His volume is there; the ball just didn't fall his way. Regression to the mean will bail him out.
Selling high: when to move
Sell a player when his recent production has been driven by unsustainable factors — a fluky long TD, three soft matchups in a row, or a temporary role created by an injury that has since healed. If his upcoming schedule is brutal, move him while his market value is inflated.
Reading your league-mates
The best buy-low opportunities often come after a bad game that was all over the message board. A manager who is frustrated and demoralized is more likely to take a slightly below-market offer. Don't be predatory, but do be opportunistic.
The one rule
Never buy low on a player whose situation has actually changed — new starter at his position, scheme change that removes him from the game plan, or a real injury. Bad games are recoverable. Changed situations are not.