SCORING

Projections Explained

SNS calculates a projected score for every player on your roster each week. Understanding what those numbers mean — and how much to trust them — makes you…

SNS calculates a projected score for every player on your roster each week. Understanding what those numbers mean — and how much to trust them — makes you a better manager.

How SNS projections work

Projections are built from a combination of season-long statistics, recent performance trends, opponent defensive rankings, and game-script factors (is this team likely to be ahead or behind?). They represent the median expected outcome — the player's most likely point total, not a ceiling or a floor.

What projections are good at

  • Ranking players against each other in a given week — a projection of 18 is reliably better than one of 11.
  • Identifying favorable and unfavorable matchups systematically, without bias toward your roster.
  • Aggregating information that would take you an hour to research manually.

What projections miss

  • Late-breaking news: Projections lock before the final injury report. If a starter is ruled out Friday night, the projection still reflects his healthy expectation.
  • Weather: Extreme wind or cold affects passing production more than projections typically capture.
  • Variance: A projected 12 points might have a realistic range of 2–30 depending on game flow. Projections show the median, not the distribution.

The right way to use projections

Use them as a starting point, not the final word. Two players projected within 1–2 points of each other require a judgment call based on matchup, injury status, and game-script factors that the number alone doesn't capture.

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